THEME 1: What's Going On in the Global Commercial Market

1) The "Extend and Pretend" Era

Robert pulls back the curtain on how commercial real estate lenders have been managing distressed loans. For the last couple of years, banks have stretched terms, tweaked payments, and found creative ways to keep loans technically "performing" on paper rather than admit what everyone knows: certain deals don't pencil anymore.
Here's the thing: you can only kick the can for so long before it hits a wall. The worry isn't that agriculture is weak — it's that regulators often lump "real estate" into one category, and agricultural credit can get swept up in the cleanup.

The Quote:

"They've been kicking the can down the road for two, three years already, or even more, on what we in commercial real estate call extend and pretend."

2) Why He's Sounding the Alarm

Robert isn't bearish on agriculture — he's the opposite. But when he sees trouble brewing in broader credit markets, he feels obligated to speak up, even if not everyone will like it. He's done the homework, has his data, and won't stay quiet while people get caught flat-footed.

The Quote:

"I thought to myself, well, geez, this equated to that I'm thinking a tsunami coming, done my homework, and this is what my data shows. And I have friends out on the beach, and I have critics out there as well. I think the right thing to do is go out there and tell them the way I see it."

3) The Chart That Says It All

When Robert describes farmland versus commercial real estate, he doesn't need a slide deck. He draws it in your head. Farmland is a long-term "up and to the right" asset. Commercial real estate is fighting gravity — vacancies, refinancing risk, constant repairs.

The Quotes:

"Farmland is an appreciating asset, bottom left, upper right."

And describing commercial real estate:

"Higher left going down."

THEME 2: Advice on Working With Your Banker

Okay, enough macro. Let's talk about what you can actually control.
Look, most of the webinar questions were some version of "what do I do?" So here's what Robert actually told farmers to do when working with their lenders.

4) Balance Sheet First, Growth Second

A young first-generation farmer asked: do you keep pushing expansion, or strengthen the balance sheet? Robert didn't hesitate. Survivability trumps growth right now. If you're not in business when the next opportunity shows up, your ambitious plan doesn't matter.

The Quote:

"I'd say balance the balance sheet. If you don't do that, you're not going to be in business to take advantage of the land."

5) Don't Buy Land With Operating Capital

Robert's "rule" is simple: pay for the business first. Inputs. Working capital. Liquidity. Then, if you truly have extra, look at land. Why? Because land is a hell of an investment — but tight liquidity turns normal seasons into stressful ones.

The Quote:

"If you pay your next year's inputs or if you have cash enough for the next year's inputs, you're not going to have a gun to your head come December, January."

6) Speak the Bank's Language

Here's what this means for you: your banker isn't measuring your operation the way you are. They're looking at ratios, coverage, liquidity. If you don't speak that language, you're walking into renewals blind. That's not jumping through hoops — that's giving your banker ammunition to advocate for you internally.

The Quote:

"Run your business by the same metrics that the banks use. So manage it on balance sheet strength, liquidity, coverage, rate sensitivity, all that good stuff."

THEME 3: Farmland as an Investment

7) All In

Someone asked about diversification. Robert studied markets, invested across sectors, and decided agriculture is number one. If he truly believes it's number one, why dilute that conviction?
That's conviction backed by homework.

The Quote:

"If I think I do all my homework, all my research, and if I find that there's an industry that I pick as number one, why the heck would I want to invest in number three, four, five, and ten down the road? I'll be in what I think is the number one and the best industry there is."

8) The Best Investment, Period

When Robert talks about farmland, he doesn't hedge. He gives you his conclusion in plain language.

The Quote:

"Right now, I see farmland is the best investment bar none."

9) Long-Term Faith in Agriculture

Even with tighter credit and uncertainty, Robert remains bullish on agriculture because food is non-discretionary. People delay a lot of purchases. They don't delay eating.

The Quote:

"If we just do our part, we're the best damn industry there is."

10) Foreign Ownership? Not the Story People Think

Someone asked about foreign money buying up Canadian farmland. Robert's response was unfiltered. He's been through the compliance scrutiny personally — the story is mostly coffee talk.

The Quote:

"It's bullsh!t. Okay. There's so much coffee talk about that crap already. There's no truth to it whatsoever, because the odd one may kind of fall through the cracks, but not many."

What Now?

Robert gave us three hours of macro analysis and kitchen-table advice. The producers who actually do something with it — the ones who call their banker next week, clean up their balance sheet, and stop making land purchases with operating capital — those are the ones who'll look back on this conversation differently than everyone else.

Written by Tim Hammond, B.S.A., PAg
President, CEO, and Broker, Hammond Realty
30+ years advising on SK farm and farmland sales, valuations, leasing, and exits & acquisitions; frequent media commentary on SK farmland markets.
Questions? Contact Tim