Published: January 10, 2026‍
By Tim Hammond, B.S.A., PAg

What Robert Andjelic said — and what producers should do next
If you missed our recent live conversation with Robert Andjelic, it wasn’t a “doom and gloom” webinar for the sake of being dramatic. Robert’s message was more precise than that: agriculture isn’t the problem, but agriculture may feel the consequences of problems elsewhere in the financial system.

Watch the full webinar on YouTube (click the link):

Is There A Capital Squeeze in Agriculture? A Live Q&A with Canada's Largest Farmland Owner

The big idea in one sentence

Robert believes we’re moving into a period where lenders are under stress (especially from commercial real estate), regulators are pushing de-risking, and that tightening can spill into farm credit even when farms are performing.

He framed his reason for speaking as responsibility, not promotion — his “tsunami” analogy was his way of saying: if you genuinely think conditions are shifting fast, you don’t wait until it’s obvious to everyone.

Robert’s 12-point thesis (in plain farmer language)

Robert laid out a 12-point macro thesis that, taken together, is his case for why credit conditions could tighten and why the timing matters now.

Here are the themes that stood out most:

1) Banks are under pressure — and it’s not coming from agriculture.

His Toronto meetings reinforced a consistent story: pressure from non-performing loans, especially commercial real estate, where “extend and pretend” has delayed the day of reckoning.

2) OSFI matters more than most people realize.

Robert’s view is that a lot of bank behavior is increasingly “forced,” not optional — because banks are managing to regulator expectations, not just local relationship decisions.

3) Credit is the circulatory system — treat lenders like partners.

Even while warning about tightening, he emphasized that credit is essential and that the lender relationship becomes more, not less, important in a stressed cycle.

4) Multiple stress points are stacking.

His argument isn’t “one crisis.” It’s that a mix of leverage, refinancing risk, and systemic complexity can converge in a way that reduces credit appetite across the board.

5) Agriculture is different — but lenders may not underwrite it that way.

Robert’s key comparative advantage point was that agriculture is non-discretionary and “resets” every year with global supply and demand. That makes it more resilient than many sectors — yet it can still face a squeeze simply because capital is scarcer or more cautious.

6) Farmland’s long-term fundamentals still matter.

He leaned on structural supports for land values, including the idea that the world loses significant arable land annually, which tightens supply over time.

The webinar also included a lively and respectful panel discussion. One important tension was the banking perspective: Scotiabank’s Janice Holzscherer pushed back on the idea of a broad ag credit squeeze and emphasized that lenders look at operations holistically, with management quality as a major factor, not simply loan-to-value. Robert acknowledged different lenders have different exposures, but maintained that regulator pressure can still tighten conditions system-wide.

Robert’s 3-prong advice (the practical part)

Here’s where the webinar shifted from macro to actionable. Robert’s plan was blunt, simple, and—whether you agree with every macro point or not—hard to argue with as good financial hygiene.

1) Start with your accountant, not your banker.

Before you sit down with the lender, get your financial house reviewed like a lender will review it. Identify weak spots, clean up presentation, and get your “numbers story” tight.

2) Meet your banker early, and speak their language.

Robert’s point wasn’t “banks don’t care.” His point was that banks need to justify decisions up the chain, and the best way to help them advocate for you is to bring a clear plan using the metrics they care about (coverage, liquidity, balance sheet strength, and risk management).

3) Run the farm by the same metrics the bank uses.

This is where he got very tactical: focus less on growth for growth’s sake and more on survivability and optionality. Concrete examples included structuring debt conservatively, updating collateral values, spreading lender exposure where possible, and improving operational efficiency.

My perspective (as a farmland advisor with a farm-finance lens)

What I appreciated most about Robert’s approach is that he didn’t just say “be careful.” He described why the goalposts can move quickly in lending—even for good operators—when head office and regulators start pressuring balance sheets. Whether you agree with every macro call or not, the practical takeaway is the same: don’t wait for the bank to initiate the conversation. Get organized, be proactive, and keep your options open.

And as we discussed on the panel, there’s value in holding two truths at once: lenders can be positive on agriculture, and still tighten in specific ways because of forces outside agriculture. That tension is exactly why these conversations matter.

A simple next-step checklist (if you’re expanding, renewing, or just planning ahead)

• Update your numbers package: accurate financials, realistic projections, and a clear liquidity picture.
• Know your ratios: debt service coverage, working capital, and sensitivity to rate and margin changes.
• Have a plan B ready: asset sales, staged expansion, or structure changes—before you need them.
• Talk early: surprises kill trust; proactive updates build it.

Watch the replay

If you want the full context—including the Q&A, the bank perspective, and Robert’s long-form explanation—watch the webinar on YouTube here: click link

Written by Tim Hammond, B.S.A., PAg
President, CEO, and Broker, Hammond Realty
30+ years advising on SK farm and farmland sales, valuations, leasing, and exits & acquisitions; frequent media commentary on SK farmland markets.
Questions? Contact Tim