The Market Is Splitting. The Data Makes It Hard to Argue.

The FCC farmland report landed last month with a number that looked reassuring on the surface. Saskatchewan up 9.4% in 2025. Manitoba leading the country at 12.2%. Easy to read those numbers, nod, and move on.

But a live poll of approximately 100 producers and ag industry participants attending a Growing the Future Productions webinar on April 14, 2026 told a different story — and a more honest one.

Only 5% of those producers expect farmland values in their area to rise more than 5% over the next twelve months. Nineteen percent expect a modest increase. Fifty-three percent expect flat. Eighteen percent expect a decline.

Where do you expect farmland values to go in your area in the next 12 months?

Live poll · ~100 producers and ag industry participants · Growing the Future Productions webinar · April 14, 2026

Only 5% of producers are bullish on meaningful appreciation — while 53% expect flat values and 18% expect a decline in their area over the next twelve months.

That's not the psychology of a market still running hot. That's a market that has quietly changed posture — and the panel assembled for that conversation reflected exactly that tension.

Who Was in the Room

The panel brought together four people who price risk for a living in the Saskatchewan farmland market.

Tim Hammond, founder of Hammond Realty, has spent 25 years tracking farmland patterns across the province. Bobby Montreuil, a farm real estate professional with Hammond Realty who actively farms in the Sovereign area, sits on both sides of that conversation daily. Courtney Thevenot, Market Vice President for SK/MB Agriculture at Scotiabank, sees the deals before they close — and the ones that don't. Conrad Olson, Senior Relationship Manager with FCC out of Rosetown, has spent a decade financing West Central transactions and came armed with the data behind the headline.

They didn't all agree. That's what made it worth listening to.

Watch the full panel discussion

The Land Market Split | Why Quality Farmland and Average Acres Are Heading Different Directions

The Split Is Real

Nobody on the panel disputed the core observation: there are now two markets operation inside the one market we talk about.

Good land in good areas is holding. Competitive buyers, strong bids, prices continuing to firm. Average land in average areas is a different story — more days on market, fewer offers, sellers getting pushback they weren't getting two years ago.

"We've got good land in good areas, and we've got average land in average areas. When people ask me if land values are going up, I say yes. When they ask if they're going down, I say yes — because it really does depend on where you are." — Tim Hammond, Hammond Realty

Conrad Olson offered a telling data point from the lending side: when tenders came available four or five years ago, he'd be processing 30 pre-approvals for the same piece of ground. Today that number is four or five. "We're still financing the same amount of dirt", he said. "There are just fewer players at the table."

Where do producers get their primary information on local farmland values?

Live poll · ~100 producers and ag industry participants · Growing the Future Productions webinar · April 14, 2026 · *FCC Farmland Report figure approximate, pending verification

View the FCC 2025 Farmland Values Report here

Informal networks remain a dominant source — 26% of producers rely primarily on neighbors and coffee shop talk, second only to the FCC Farmland Report.

*Note: FCC was listed as a separate opinion from "lender" in the original poll. The intent was the FCC Farmland Report as a data source, not FCC as a lending institution.

What the Polls Actually Show

Here's where the producer sentiment data gets interesting — and where it complicates the simple "softening market" narrative.

What is your most likely land move in the next 12 months?

Live poll · ~100 producers and ag industry participants · Growing the Future Productions webinar · April 14, 2026

45% plan to hold — but 25% are still buying despite only 5% expecting meaningful appreciation, suggesting buyer motivation has shifted from market speculation to strategic farm efficiency.

Read those two numbers side by side — only 5% expect values to rise significantly, yet 25% are planning to buy — and something important surfaces. A meaningful share of producers are planning to buy land they don't expect to appreciate dramatically in the near term. That's not speculation. That's strategy.

The buyers still active in this market aren't chasing appreciation. They're solving farm problems — right-sizing operations, filling in geographic gaps, shedding inefficient distant parcels to consolidate closer to home.

"There are definitely strategic land purchases or sales based on what is the right size, what's the most efficient size. If they're 5,000 acres and they can run 6,000 with the same equipment setup and be more efficient — that's what's driving it." — Courtney Thevenot, Market Vice President SK/MB Agriculture, Scotiabank

The old buyer was playing the market. The new buyer is building a farm.

Where the Panel Disagrees

The lending perspective on the call was measured and consistently optimistic. Land is still changing hands. Transactions are happening. Canadian agriculture is well-positioned in a complicated geopolitical world. All of that is true.

But Hammond's read carried a sharper edge. Values are increasing at a decreasing rate, he argued — and the deals closing today won't show up in any report until well into 2026. The FCC mid-year data quietly supports that: values were up 6% in the first half of 2025, but the full-year number came in at 9.4%, meaning the second half did the heavy lifting. The math on that trajectory heading into 2026 is worth sitting with.

"I'm not seeing the year-over-year increases on the early sales this year. Maybe it's a stagnation — more nominal increases rather than the ten percent year-over-year we've been used to." — Conrad Olson, Senior Relationship Manager, FCC Rosetown

That gap between "land is still trading" and "land is appreciating the way it was" is exactly where producers need to be paying attention.

The Slow-Moving Story Nobody's Fully Pricing In

Beneath the market split, there's a longer-term shift building quietly — and it didn't get enough airtime on the panel.

According to the FCC farmland report, approximately 65% of Saskatchewan farmland is owned by producers who are 65 or older. That land will change hands over the coming decade, through retirement, estate settlement, or succession plans that don't include a next generation taking over the farm. When it hits the market — and more of it will — it represents a meaningful increase in supply in a market that has run largely on scarcity for twenty-five years.

This doesn't mean a collapse. It means the supply side of the equation is going to look different than it has. Producers paying attention to that shift are already positioning themselves — watching for off-market opportunities, building lender relationships before they need them, and staying patient in a market that now rewards patience.

What to Do With This

The producers still buying are doing so with sharper pencils and clearer strategic rationale than the market of two or three years ago. That discipline is healthy. It's also an opportunity — for buyers with patience and a clear farm plan, this environment offers more options and less competition than anything seen in recent memory.

If you own strong land, you remain well-positioned — but the window for top-dollar dispositions may be narrowing as buyer depth thins out. If you're watching average land in your area sit longer than expected, trust what you're seeing. The data will catch up.

And if you're planning to grow, know your cost structure, know what fits your operation over twenty years — not one crop year — and be ready to move when the right piece comes available.

The market isn't broken. It's recalibrating. The producers who understand the difference between the provincial headline and what's actually happening on the ground around their farm will be the ones who come out of this period ahead.

Tim Hammond is the President, CEO and Broker of Hammond Realty, Saskatchewan's agricultural real estate advisory firm. With over 35 years in the province's farmland market, he specializes in helping producers, investors, and farm families navigate complex transitions with clarity and confidence.