Saskatchewan farmland values have never been higher, but what if the next big move is down?

Over the past century, land values have followed a familiar pattern: boom, correction, recovery. In a recent recorded conversation, I sat down with longtime friend and market analyst Trent Klarenbach of Klarenbach Research to examine where we might be in that cycle today.

Trent applied technical analysis tools—normally used for stocks and commodities—to more than 100 years of inflation-adjusted farmland sales in Saskatchewan. The result? One of the most compelling visual summaries I’ve seen in my 34+ years in this industry.

Below is the full 50-minute video of our conversation, where we walk through a century of Saskatchewan land data, explore RSI, trendlines, support and resistance levels, and Elliott Wave theory, and share our thoughts on what it might signal for the road ahead.

Watch the Full Conversation Below

In 60 Seconds:

• Saskatchewan farmland is sitting at all-time high values.
• Key technical indicators suggest we could be near a market top.
• Previous “overbought” signals like this have preceded major corrections.
• Sellers may want to consider listing while demand is strong.
• Buyers should stay cautious, run the numbers, and protect their downside.

History Repeats Itself

“Conditions are always different, but human nature remains the same.” ~Trent Klarenbach

Here are three major corrections Trent’s chart reveals:

• 1921–1941: Land values fell more than 50% over 19 years.
• 1968–1972: A 21% pullback linked to policy and marketing disruption.
• 1981–1993: A 63% decline following interest rate spikes and commodity volatility. It took over 30 years to recover in real terms.

Each was preceded by optimism, strong demand, and a sharp rise in values, just like we’re seeing today.

What the Chart Says Now

Using 2023 inflation-adjusted dollars, Trent’s analysis shows:

• Estimated 2023 land value: ~$2,600 per acre
• RSI: 96.2 – the highest in recorded history
• According to Trent’s analysis, if farmland values drop just 5% from current levels, it would trigger a technical sell signal, based on the 2-year exponential moving average.
• Current price position: Testing the top of a 100-year upward channel
• Next support levels (if a correction occurs):
   
  • ~$1,270 per acre (1981 peak ~ 50% drop)
   
  • ~$471 per acre (1922/1993 support ~ 80% drop)

“This is what I call a level of interest,” Trent said.“It’s not a sell signal yet, but I wouldn’t be buying without caution.”

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What We’re Seeing in The Field

Across Saskatchewan, our team of Ag Experts are seeing real-world signals that support what Trent’s analysis reveals:

• Inventory is rising: January farmland listings increased from 200 to 300 this year.
• Affordability is eroding: According to FCC’s Land Affordability Index, Saskatchewan is now the least affordable province in Western Canada.
• Rental demand is strengthening: More buyers are opting to lease land as financing options become tighter.

“If you’re thinking of expanding, but the numbers don’t quite pencil out, and that makes you uncomfortable, consider renting,” we often advise.

What Should You Do?

Whether you're farming, holding, selling, or investing—this is a time for thoughtful, well-informed decisions.

• If you’re a seller:
      This could be the best timing window in a decade. Values remain strong, and there’s still healthy buyer interest.
• If you’re a buyer:
   
  • Focus on land tied to your core operation.
   
  • Be cautious about overextending, especially if interest rates rise or commodity prices weaken.
   
  • Consider renting while evaluating the market.
   
  • Ask yourself: If values dropped 10–20%, would this decision still make sense?

Final Thoughts

Whether you agree with the chart, challenge it, or feel skeptical, one thing is clear: Saskatchewan farmland is at a critical inflection point.

If you'd like help evaluating your options—selling, buying, leasing, or simply understanding the value of your land—we’re here to help.

Let’s stay curious. Let’s think strategically. And let’s keep asking the hard questions.

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About Trent Klarenbach

‍Trent Klarenbach is the founder of Klarenbach Research and a respected grain marketing analyst with a degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Saskatchewan. He applies technical analysis to grain and special crops markets, publishing the Klarenbach Grain Report and Special Crops Report, which offer concise, actionable insights grounded in decades of historical data. His research reaches a global audience across six continents through his Telegram group and newsletters.

👉 Learn more at www.klarenbach.ca.